Probability and Statistics Engineers and Scientists

Question: Discuss about the Probability and Statistics for Engineers and Scientists. Answer: Introduction: The topic of the research proposal is increasing number of smokers in Australia. The proposal analyzes different issues related to increasing number of smokers in Australia with main concentration on its health and business impact. The research shows that approximately fifteen thousand Australians are killed each year due to smoking. The number of male smokers is larger than female smokers in Australia. The increase in number of smokers is not only harmful for the health but also for the economy as it hurts the business of the country. The proposal analyzes the actual cost of increase in number of smokers in Australia (Cho et al. 2016). Increase in number of smoking leads to more death in the country and increases the health hazards. It also has social costs on the society of Australia. The rise in the number of deaths leads to a loss of the revenue that they contribute towards the economy. The business impact of the increase in number of smokers in Australia is the lost in productiv e capacity due to increase in number of deaths due to smoking. Increase in number of smokers leads to increase in diseases that in turn increase the costs that the government has to bear to improve the health care facility. Hence, the proposal will address both the health and business impact of increase in number of smokers in Australia. Literature review Increase in number of smokers has impact on health conditions of people and hurts the economy of Australia as it decreases the revenue of the country and the government. Increase in number of smoking, increases the chance of cancer and risk of rise in number of deaths. Rise in number of deaths in turn leads to decrease in productive capacity and the revenue that they would have contributed to the nation (Dunlop et al. 2014). The expenditure of the government increases, as they have to invest in improving the health care facility in the country. The data from Australian Bureau of statistics suggests that the number of smokers in Australia is declining since 2009. The main reason for this decline is the increase in education and awareness of health hazards of smoking. People are becoming more health conscious due to which number of smokers in Australia is decreasing. Despite of this fact increase in smoking has health cost, economic cost as well as social cost. Smoking has both tangibl e and intangible costs (Lal et al. 2013). The tangible costs of smoking are costs that arise due to loss of productivity that occurs due to premature death and illness. Such costs are often termed as labor costs. Tangible costs consist of health care cost, damage costs that occurs due to fire and abusive consumption cost. Intangible costs are costs that arise due to premature death and loss of enjoyment (Getsios et al. 2013). Heath cost of smoking: increase in smoking leads to many health hazards and diseases that affects not only the smokers but the non-smokers as well. Smoking leads to severe diseases such as cancer that can often lead to death. The survey conducted in 2013 shows that the health cost of increase in smoking in Australia accounts to 31.5 billion dollars (Li et al. 2014). When a person is encountered with disease, he has to undergo treatment that puts costs on the family members of the smokers, as they have to spend huge amount of money on treatment of patients. The parameters of health cost are increase in medical cost, hospital cost, nursing home, pharmaceuticals and costs rising due to ambulances. Economic cost of smoking: economic cost of smoking is measured in terms of the lost productivity that occurs due to death of a person. The study shows that the smokers take more leaves in offices than the non-smokers. This is because the smokers are often sick and unable to work. This leads to reduction in productivity of the organization due to increase in absenteeism (Ekpu and Brown 2015). In 2004 to 2005, the productivity loss that occurred due to increase in absenteeism accounted for 779.6 million dollar in Australia. The study shows that economic costs due to increase in smoking is two million dollar in Australia in the year 2004-2005. Reduction in the size of workforce leads to loss in productivity and the revenue, which otherwise they could have contributed if they were it (Prina et al. 2014). Social cost smoking: smoking does not only affect the smokers but the entire society. Increase in smoking in Australia has led to an increase in air pollution that is harming the non-smokers as well. The survey showed that it is the children that have been affected the most due to increase in smoking. This is because the air that they breathe in harms the health that leads to occurrence of diseases. Smoking damages the assets of the economy that adds on to the cost for the society. Lighting of cigarette has high risk of fire that is regarded as the social cost to the nation. Social costs of smoking are often termed as external costs (Hitchman et al. 2014). There are two ways of measuring social cost. One is demographic approach and the second is human capital approach. Demographic approach is used to measure the cost of drugs in past and present years. Human capital approach is used to measure the impact of drugs abuse in present and future years (Tobaccoinaustralia.org.au. 2016). Hence, increase in number of smokers has three costs that nation has to bear. In 2013, the survey showed that Australia had to bear a total of $31.5 billion. The three costs of smoking has been presented by Collins and Lapsleys studies of social costs (Quit.org.au. 2016). Figure: tangible social costs of tobacco use in Australia in 2004-2005 (Source: Health.gov.au. 2016) Research questions and research hypothesis Various researches have been conducted to analyze the impact of increase in number of smokers in Australia. The research questions has been developed by using different research methodologies and techniques. The basic objective is to highlight the costs that Australia has to bear due to increase in number of smokers. The following research questions are outlined in a descriptive approach to conduct the survey: Has the number of proportion of smokers increased in Australia? What is the proportion of male and female smokers in Australia? Does the number of male and female smokers vary in Australia and if yes in what proportion? Does the number of smokers in different age group vary and if yes in what proportion? Does any relationship exist between the socio-economic status and smoking in Australia? Does Australian government have to bear any cost due to increase in number of smokers in Australia? What recommendations are taken to reduce the social costs of smoking by the Australian government and society? Is the economic cost of smoking greater or the health cost in Australia? Research hypothesis: The research hypothesis is defined by taking null and alternate hypothesis. Ho: There is a relationship between increase in number of smokers in Australia and the cost that Australia has to bear. H1: There is a positive relationship between increase in number of smokers and the cost that Australia has to bear. H2: There is a negative relationship between increase in number of smokers and the cost that Australia has to bear. Research methodology and technique Various methods and techniques have been used for the research study of the increasing number of smokers in the Australia. The first step of the research is collecting data on the number of smokers in Australia from an official government website or authorized government agency. The data collected will be based and differentiated according to age and gender of number of smokers is Australia. The sample size of the research will be large. ABS National Health Survey will be used for data collection for the year 2014-2015 and previous years. The research methodology was analyzed on certain dependent and independent variables. The impact of increase in smoking and the costs that Australia has to bear will also are analyzed through proper data collection method and technique (Saunders and Thornhill 2014). Various statistical tests of hypothesis are used for checking different hypothesis as mentioned above. The aim of the research is to get an unbiased result that is based on different statistical tests. One sample and two sample z test is used for analyzing the data and the hypothesis. The theory is interpreted on the basis of researchers interests and study in the topic. The research is based on the interpretive view and is descriptive in nature where all the questions will be answered with the explanation. . It is connected with the theoretical point of impracticality where many things and methods can be useful to the topic to replicate diverse consequences. The interpretive follows the understanding of weak notion; it establishes the relationship between time and context and outlines the problems and solutions to the study (Goldkuhl 2012). The main idea of the research proposal is to identify the questions and suggest a solution to the problems. The research is also conducted to check the reliability and validating of the findings in the real world. The research is based on certain principles based on which a conclusion is drawn. The researcher uses inductive approach to explain the experiments, questionnaires and surveys. A large sample size of 500 people is taken upon which the observation is based (Stanczyk et al. 2014). The decision is drawn based on the z test that is used to test the hypothesis. . In this approach, the relationships are made and then they are tested for the outlined purpose of understanding the certain additional meaning to the research. The quantitative approach is said to b more cost effective for the researcher than the qualitative approach. It is more easier to draw a conclusion based on quantitative approach than qualitative approach (Ross 2014). Gantt chart using the three milestones Literature Review is due on Week 6. Data Collection and Analysis Report are due on Week 10. Final Business Research (Capstone) Thesis is due on week 14. Figure 1: Gantt Chart using three milestones (Source: created by author) Research process The research is conducted in step by step process from the beginning to the end of investigation. The standard procedure of method is used to conduct the research study on increasing number of smokers in Australia and its impact on the economy of Australia. The research process can be explained by using five basic criteria's. The primary step in research process is to choose a research topic that is followed by a literature review to support the research topic. In this case a study was conducted regarding the increase in number of smokers in Australia and the costs involved due to increase in smoking. The second step is to decide the method that will be used to conduct the survey. In this research proposal, quantitative approach is used to draw the conclusion, as it is more cost effective than the qualitative approach. Quantitative method ensures that the actions is performed and completed before the process is preceded. A methodology and technique is prepared regarding the statistical tool that will be used to test the hypothesis. Different tests of hypothesis are used to draw the result of the research. The p-value test is used to take the decision whether to reject of accept the hypothesis. A two sample and a one-sample z test is used to test the hypothesis and make a decision. The sample size taken includes the population of Australia that includes people of different age and gender. The step by step procedure is followed according to the fundamental paradigm. The data is collected from the official government website of ABS national Health Survey and from the authorized government agency of Australia. Secondary data is used for the research. It is essential to use proper test for getting data and hypothesis that is reliable and valid in real world. Data collection and analysis methods The data is collected using the website of ABS national Health Survey for 2014-2015 and the previous years. The data is also collected from the authorized government agencies of Australia. The data is available on website that is free of cost. It is proportionately based on gender and age. The data is collected using the secondary sources of data. The data on the website is not just available for the current year but for previous years as well. It is divided into different categories based on different parameters such as socio economic status, age, sex, gender and occupation. It is essential for the researcher to check that the data available is reliable and valid. It is also essential to check that the data available is biased or not by checking from the different sources (Gray 2013). Proper techniques should be used while collecting and extracting the data is order to ensure that the data collected is biased in nature. Secondary data is the data that is already published in journal s ad website. Collecting secondary data is useful as it is less time consuming. The next step after collection of data is the analysis of data using various statistical tools regarding the increase in number of smokers in Australia. After forming the questions and hypothesis it is essential to test the hypothesis using different tools and methods. In this case, p-value test is used to make a decision whether to accept or reject the hypothesis and z test is used to test the hypothesis. The data collected is analyzed by deriving histograms and bar charts in an excel file. The statistical tests are also used to check whether the number of male and female smokers in Australia and the smokers of different age (Sarantakos 2012). The test is done to know the impact of the increase in smoking in Australia and the costs that the society has to bear. Analyzing data is essential to know the impact of increase in smoking on the Australian economy and its health, social and economic costs. Expected research outcomes The researcher always have some expectation before conducting the research. The researcher expects that the number of smokers has decreased in Australia. It is also expected that he number of male smokers is greater than number of female smokers. The third expectation is that the number of smokers is high in higher age group. It is assumed that the increase in number of smoking is always harmful to the society. The hypothesis is expected to show a positive relationship between the increase in number of smoking and its harmful impact on Australia. It is expected that there is significant relationship between socio economic status and number of smokers in Australia (Graham 2012). The increase in number of smokers has three costs involved that are economic cost, social cost and health cost. It is expected that the health cost of smoking is higher than the other costs and that social cost and economic cost is dependent on health cost of smoking in Australia. Recommendations The recommendations on result state that the study can be analyzed for a further study by differentiating all factors and an extensive study can be based on using the entire main and the silent elements individually. The study is limited to small observations. Hence, the study can be extended to a much larger sample to check the efficiency of the reliability and validity of the research on a large scale. References Cho, Y.J., Thrasher, J.F., Swayampakala, K., Yong, H.H., McKeever, R., Hammond, D., Anshari, D., Cummings, K.M. and Borland, R., 2016. Does Reactance against Cigarette Warning Labels Matter? Warning Label Responses and Downstream Smoking Cessation amongst Adult Smokers in Australia, Canada, Mexico and the United States.PloS one,11(7), p.e0159245. Dunlop, S.M., Dobbins, T., Young, J.M., Perez, D. and Currow, D.C., 2014. 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